Final Thoughts on 2026 ARC-CO vs. PLC Decision

With the release of the November WASDE by USDA this week on November 10, we have the last major update before the December 11 ARC-CO and PLC signup deadline. With the deadline less than a month away, these projections are the best guide producers will have. The table below summarizes the November WASDE projected 2026 market year average prices for each crop. Of the major crops, the decision takes the most thought for soybeans and corn, where neither program is projected to pay at November prices, while the choice for the rest looks more clear-cut.

Soybeans

As of right now, it appears highly unlikely that soybeans will trigger a PLC payment. The November projected MYA price of $12.10 per bushel, up 10 cents from October, is $1.39 above the $10.71 effective reference price, so prices would have to fall more than 11% before PLC pays anything. With strong soybean demand from exports and domestic crush, the outlook is for soybean prices to remain supported heading into the winter, which makes a drop that large unlikely.

Even if prices did fall, ARC-CO would pay first. Its $10.95 trigger price is 24 cents above the PLC reference price, so with county yields at benchmark, ARC-CO starts paying once the MYA price drops below $10.95, while PLC would not pay until it drops below $10.71. ARC-CO also has a yield component: at November prices, it would pay if the county yield comes in 9.5% or more below benchmark, compared with 8.7% in October. On price, ARC-CO offers the earlier trigger for soybeans, and producers will need to weigh that alongside their own expectations for yields in their county.

Corn

Corn has less of a cushion. The November projected MYA price of $4.60 per bushel is 18 cents above the $4.42 effective reference price, so prices would need to fall about 4% before PLC pays. The November report lowered the corn price 10 cents from October, but USDA also cut its production estimate, which should add some support to the market going forward.

As with soybeans, ARC-CO would pay first if prices fall. Its $4.53 trigger price is 11 cents above the PLC reference price, so with county yields at benchmark, ARC-CO starts paying once the MYA price drops below $4.53, just 7 cents below the November projection. The yield component also matters more for corn: at $4.60, a county yield just 1.6% below benchmark would trigger an ARC-CO payment, compared with 3.7% in October. ARC-CO offers the earlier price trigger for corn as well, and producers will need to weigh that alongside their own expectations for yields in their county.

Seed Cotton, Rice, Peanuts, Wheat, and Grain Sorghum

Seed cotton, rice, and peanuts are all currently expected to trigger PLC payments. Long-grain rice and peanuts seem to be safely in the PLC payment range, while seed cotton is triggering a smaller payment.

Long-grain rice was unchanged at $14.00 per cwt, $2.90 below its $16.90 reference price, and peanuts fell $10 to $470 per ton, $160 below their $630 reference price. ARC-CO would pay on both even with county yields above benchmark, but at projected prices, PLC would pay more unless a farm’s PLC yield is roughly 40% of the county benchmark yield or less. Seed cotton’s projected price fell from 41.5 to 41.0 cents per pound, about 1 cent below its 42-cent reference price. ARC-CO would need a county yield 5.4% below benchmark to pay on seed cotton, so PLC is the program currently projected to pay unless the county crop comes in short.

Wheat and grain sorghum are projected to pay under both programs. Wheat fell another 10 cents to $6.20 per bushel, 15 cents below its $6.35 reference price and three times the PLC payment rate projected in October. At $6.20, wheat is also below its $6.28 ARC-CO trigger price, so ARC-CO would pay even at the county benchmark yield. Even so, at projected prices, PLC would pay more on wheat unless a farm’s PLC yield is about 55% of the county benchmark yield or less. Grain sorghum slipped 5 cents to $4.45 per bushel. ARC-CO pays about 32 cents per bushel of benchmark yield, compared with a 22-cent PLC payment rate, so at projected prices, ARC-CO would pay more for grain sorghum on nearly every farm.

Summary

For soybeans and corn, neither program is projected to pay at November prices, so the choice comes down to ARC-CO’s earlier price trigger and each producer’s expectations for yields in their county. For seed cotton, rice, peanuts, wheat, and grain sorghum, the November projections point more clearly to one program. Whatever the decision, producers are urged to begin contacting their local FSA office well ahead of the December 11 sign-up deadline.

Comparing Payments on Your Farm

The MSU Extension 2026 ARC-CO vs. PLC Payment Comparison tool estimates 2026 ARC-CO and PLC payments per base acre for each program crop in any Mississippi county. Enter your farm’s PLC yield from FSA for an estimate specific to your farm, and raise or lower the county yield to see how a short or strong crop would change the ARC-CO payment. Development of this tool was supported by the Mississippi Corn Promotion Board.

The tool is an estimate, not a guarantee of payment. Confirm your base acres, PLC yields and election with your local FSA office before the December 11 deadline. For questions about the tool, contact Will Maples at will.maples@msstate.edu or (662) 325-2883.

Decision Tool Link: msstateagecon.shinyapps.io/2026ARCPLCPayments/